Author Profile
Warnock, Frank
From Draghi’s "Whatever It Takes" to Managing Fragmentation Risk
GEM-0212 | Published March 05, 2024 | 28 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Written in February 2023, this case examines the eurozone from the perspective of core and periphery long-term rates. By 2010, the "Great Convergence" in eurozone long-term rates during the late 1990s... Read More
The 3P Model
GEM-0209 | Published February 29, 2024 | 12 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents an open-economy macroeconomic model with three panes: IS/LM, international capital flows, and the exchange rate and net exports. It also includes extensions: full employment and the... Read More
Identifying Fragilities in the Global Economy
Warnock, Frank; Walsh, Kieran J.
GEM-0208 | Published February 28, 2024 | 13 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents frameworks and indicators for identifying fragile economies. It includes an assessment of Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five call in 2012 as well as current fragilities data for a range ... Read More
Swatch Group and Francogeddon (Abridged)
GEM-0206 | Published February 27, 2024 | 8 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This case illustrates how exchange rate shocks affect international businesses. The focus is on one recent stark example: the effect on Swatch Group of the Swiss National Bank's January 2015 decision ... Read More
Predicting the Next High-Growth Economies
Warnock, Frank; Walsh, Kieran J.
GEM-0207 | Published January 30, 2024 | 14 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
In 2001, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) were predicted to grow faster than many others; this prediction turned out to be true. In this technical note, the challenge is to id... Read More
An Abridged User’s Guide to BPM6-Based BOP and IIP Accounts
GEM-0213 | Published January 18, 2024 | 6 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This note presents an abridged description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for Mexico, but given that there are worldwide standards for... Read More
Yield Curve Basics (SPANISH)
BP-0567 | Published December 15, 2021 | 7 pages Technical Note
Collection: Darden School of Business
This is a Spanish translation of the March 15, 2006 version of UVA-BP-0491. This technical note discusses risk and term premiums, prominent theories of the yield curve, and how to construct a yield cu... Read More
The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts (SPANISH)
GEM-0229 | Published December 15, 2021 | 9 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
This is a Spanish translation of the August 23, 2018 version of UVA-GEM-0106. In this case the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the curren... Read More
The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts
GEM-0106 | Published March 07, 2011 | 8 pages Case
Collection: Darden School of Business
Fully updated through February 2024, in this case, the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that... Read More